economic growth – Muhasebe News

UK Government Projects 0.2% Economic Growth This Year, Avoiding Technical Recession

MuhasebeNews — Thu, 16 Mar 2023 08:39:50 +0000

Due to shifting global developments and government support measures, the UK economy is expected to contract this year but escape a technical recession, according to Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s budget speech.

Hunt stated as he delivered the spring budget statement to the parliament that the Office for Budget Responsibility, also known as the OBR, predicted the economy will not experience any recession this year with a decline of just 0.2 percent.

Two straight quarters of declining output constitute a technical recession.

The government had predicted a 1.4 percent decline in GDP this year and the economy going into a recession last year in its fall statement from November.

The chancellor continued, “And after this year, the UK economy will expand in every single year of the forecast period: by 1.8 percent in 2024, 2.5 percent in 2025, 2.1 percent in 2026, and 1.9 percent in 2027.

In comparison to the Autumn forecast, 170,000 fewer people are expected to be unemployed, resulting in a predicted increase in the unemployment rate of less than one percentage point to 4.4 percent.

Hunt reiterated that halving inflation is one of the Rishi Sunak administration’s top economic objectives.

By the end of 2023, the OBR predicted that inflation would have decreased from 10.7 percent in the final quarter of 2022 to 2.9 percent.

The chancellor attributed the recent wave of national strikes to high inflation as their primary cause.

We’ll keep working hard to resolve these disagreements, but only in a manner that doesn’t promote inflation, Hunt said.

Source: RTT NEWS
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China April Service Sector Growth Slowest In Nearly a Year: Caixin PMI

MuhasebeNews — Sat, 06 May 2017 10:16:03 +0000

The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 51.5 from March’s 52.2, the fourth monthly decline in a row and suggesting the sector grew at its weakest pace since May 2016.

Growth in China’s services sector cooled to its slowest in almost a year in April as fears of slower economic growth dented business confidence.

Caixin’s composite manufacturing and services PMI also pointed to a loss of growth momentum for the month, falling to 51.2, its lowest since June 2016, from 52.1 in March.

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy General Directorate of Economic Research and Assessment

Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Downplays Economic Weakness!

MuhasebeNews — Fri, 05 May 2017 15:17:34 +0000

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market, in a sign it was still on track for two more rate rises this year.

In a bullish statement following the end of a two-day policy meeting, the central bank also said consumer spending continued to be solid, business investment had firmed and inflation has been “running close” to the Fed’s target. “The committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory,” the Fed said in a unanimous statement.

The labor market continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed and “the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid,” policymakers added. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at its last meeting in March to a target range of 0.75% to 1%.

Source: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy General Directorate of Economic Research and Assessment

Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI Reports Has Been Revealed!!!

MuhasebeNews — Wed, 03 May 2017 09:32:44 +0000

The survey is seen as the fastest and the most reliable reference for the manufacturing industry’s performance and a key indicator for economic growth.

According to the data from Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Turkey’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) increased to 52,3 which indicates the strongest improvement for conditions for the manufacturing industry since February 2014.

Manufacturing has seen the highest growth rate over the past three years, while employment figures climbed by two-year high rates.

Source: Istanbul Chamber of Industry

BOJ Cuts Inflation Forecast While Keeping Stimulus Unchanged!

MuhasebeNews — Sat, 29 Apr 2017 07:08:46 +0000

The Bank of Japan kept its stimulus policies unchanged while lowering its inflation forecast, underscoring that any exit from its unprecedented monetary easing remains far away.

The BOJ made a small increase to its growth forecasts for this fiscal year and next. In its quarterly outlook report, the BOJ cut its inflation projection for the fiscal year that started this month to 1.4% from 1.5%.

While growth forecast for fiscal 2017: 1.6% (previous 1.5%), growth forecast for fiscal 2018: 1.3% (previous 1.1%). While global demand is supporting exports and contributing to modest economic growth, four years of extraordinary monetary stimulus is generating only the smallest of increases in prices.

Source: Ministry of Economy

Economic Overview

MuhasebeNews — Mon, 13 Mar 2017 12:18:38 +0000

The Turkish economy has shown remarkable performance with its steady growth over the last decade. A sound macroeconomic strategy in combination with prudent fiscal policies and major structural reforms in effect since 2002 has integrated the Turkish economy into the globalized world, while transforming the country into one of the major recipients of FDI in its region.

The structural reforms, hastened by Turkey’s EU accession process, have paved the way for comprehensive changes in a number of areas. The main objectives of these efforts were to increase the role of the private sector in the Turkish economy, to enhance the efficiency and resiliency of the financial sector, and to place the social security system on a more solid foundation. As these reforms have strengthened the macroeconomic fundamentals of the country, the economy grew with an average annual real GDP growth rate of 4.7 percent over the period of 2002 to 2014.

Average Annual Real GDP Growth (%) 2002-2013

Source: OECD, Eurostat and national sources

Moreover, Turkey’s impressive economic performance over the past decade has encouraged experts and international institutions to make confident projections about Turkey’s economic future. For example, according to the OECD, Turkey is expected to be one of the fastest growing economies of the OECD members during 2014-2016, with an annual average growth rate of 3.6 percent.

Annual Average Real GDP Growth (%) Forecast in OECD Countries 2014-2016

Source: OECD, February 2015

Together with stable economic growth, Turkey has also reined in its public finances; the EU-defined general government nominal debt stock fell to 33.5 percent from 67.7 percent between 2003 and 2014. Hence, Turkey has been meeting the “60 percent EU Maastricht criteria” for public debt stock since 2004. Similarly, during 2003-2014, the budget deficit decreased from more than 10 percent to less than 3 percent, which is one of the EU Maastricht criteria for the budget balance.

As the GDP levels increased to USD 800 billion in 2014, up from USD 305 billion in 2003, GDP per capita soared to USD 10,404, up from USD 4,565 in the given period.

The visible improvements in the Turkish economy have also boosted foreign trade, while exports reached USD 158 billion by the end of 2014, up from USD 47 billion in 2003. Similarly, tourism revenues, which were around USD 14 billion in 2003, exceeded USD 34.3 billion in 2014.

Significant improvements in such a short period of time have registered Turkey on the world economic scale as an exceptional emerging economy, the 16th largest economy in the world and the 6th largest economy when compared with the EU countries, according to GDP figures (at PPP) in 2013.

a. Institutionalized economy fueled by USD 144 billion of FDI in the past decade
b. 16th largest economy in the world and 6th largest economy compared with EU countries in 2013 (GDP at PPP, IMF-WEO)
c. Robust economic growth with an average annual real GDP growth of 4.7 percent during 2002-2014
d. GDP reached USD 800 billion in 2014, up from USD 305 billion in 2003
e. Sound economic policies with a prudent fiscal discipline
f. Strong financial structure resilient to the global financial crisis

Date: 13 March 2017

Transportation and Logistics in Turkey

MuhasebeNews — Mon, 13 Mar 2017 08:59:03 +0000

Turkey, one of the most vibrant economies among emerging countries, sits at the heart of a major crossroads in global trade, bridging East and West, Europe and Asia.

Turkey’s strategic location provides access within a four-hour flight radius to multiple markets with a combined population of 1.6 billion people, a combined GDP of USD 27 trillion, and more than USD 8 trillion of foreign trade, which corresponds to around half of the total global trade. Trade in Turkey has been rising significantly, and the region as a whole has more of a presence in global trade. In 2015, Turkey was responsible for 1.05 percent of the global trade volume, and the country’s share in global trade is expected to exceed 1.5 percent by 2023.

The Turkish economy, which has been growing at an average annual growth rate of almost 4.7 percent over the last 13 years, provides many opportunities for the logistics sector. In addition to its robust economic growth, Turkey has one of the largest and youngest labor pools in Europe. More than 65 percent of Turkey’s population is aged between 24 and 54, and the strength of this labor force is reflected in the logistics industry. Investors can easily hire a talented workforce at a competitive cost to address the complex demands of the industry.

Public and private infrastructure investments in the last ten years have significantly improved the logistics services provided in Turkey. Many new airports have been built, and highways have spread across the country. In addition, the burgeoning high-speed train network has begun connecting major cities and the capacity of Turkish ports has been increased. Turkey is also building 20 logistics centers/villages, of which 7 have been completed, that will serve to lower the costs of transportation by offering various modes of transportation within these centers/villages.

The Turkish government has set challenging targets to be achieved by 2023 in an effort to further improve the logistics infrastructure. These targets include, but are not limited to:

Having a total road network of 70,000 km, with 36,500 km of it being dual carriage way and 8,000 km of it being highway
Having a total railway network of 25,000 km, of which 12,000 km will be high-speed railway
Increasing annual passenger transportation to 1 billion persons and freight transportation to 125 million tons
Increasing the total number of passenger airplanes from 487 to 750
Constructing new airports in a move to increase total annual capacity to 400 million passengers
Increasing container handling capacity from 8.4 million TEU to 32 million TEU
Increasing vessel fleet carrying capacity from 29.2 million DWT to 50 million DWT
Building one port in each of the three seas surrounding Turkey

Turkey’s advantageous geographical location, which provides easy access to Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, allows the country to function as a hub for the freight carried in the region. The current size of Turkey’s logistics industry is such that it accounts for 12-13 percent of the country’s GDP. Immense growth is expected according to 2023 GDP targets, with the industry estimated to reach a volume of USD 200-240 billion by 2023.

Date: 13 March 2017