The proportion of employed persons in the number of all persons aged 15–64 years reached 75.3% in January 2023. It increased by 0,4 percentage point (p.p.) compared to that in January 2022. The male employment rate was 81.6%; the female employment rate was 68,8%. The employment rate of persons aged 15–29 years was 44,3%, in the age group of 30–49 years it was 88,4%, and in the age group of 50–64 years it was 80,2%.

The general unemployment rate

The percentage of the unemployed in the labour force, that is in the total number of the employed and the unemployed (that means economically active persons), reached 2.6% in January 2023. It increased by 0.2 percentage point, year-on-year. The male unemployment rate reached 2,3%; the female unemployment rate reached 3,1%.

“In South European countries such as Greece, Spain, or Italy, male unemployment rates use to be typically lower than female unemployment rates. In Czechia, the situation is similar, females face a significantly higher risk of unemployment than males. During the whole period of the Labour Force Sample Survey taking place, i.e. since 1993, the female unemployment rate has been nearly by a half higher, on average; there has not been any period with the female unemployment rate lower than the male unemployment rate, yet,” Dalibor Holý, Director of the Labour Market and Equal Opportunities Statistics Department of the Czech Statistical Office, comments on the results.

The economic activity rate

The percentage of the economically active in the total number of persons aged 15–64 years reached 77.4%. It increased by 0.6 p. p. compared to that in January 2022. The male economic activity rate (83.5%) exceeded the female economic activity rate (71.0%) by 12.5 p. p.

International comparability

All data presented in the News Release are seasonally adjusted. They apply to the age group of 15–64 years. They come from the Labour Force Sample Survey (LFSS) carried out by a network of interviewers of the CZSO in households and are different in terms of methodology from administrative data of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic on registered job applicants (namely the “Share of unemployed persons” indicator).

The LFSS has an internationally comparable methodology, which defines the employed and the unemployed in accordance with recommendations of the International Labour Organization. The CZSO regularly sends data from the LFSS to Eurostat, which prepares monthly press release on unemployment as for Member States of the EU, however, for the age group of 15–74 years. The unemployment rate in that age group (of the aged 15–74 years) was 2.5% in the Czech Republic in January 2023.

In compliance with the international methodology for the LFSS, the survey is only carried out in private households; collective accommodation establishments as well as temporary shelters are not covered. Due to those reasons, coming of war refugees from the Ukraine will, for the time being, be reflected only marginally in the trends.

Tables 1 and 2 enclosed contain methodologically consistent time series of basic indicators of the labour market and numbers of the employed and unemployed persons, starting in 1993.

Source: Czech Statistical Office
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According to the news published by Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, the Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to reduce the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) from 11.25 percent to 10.75 percent.

Recent data indicate that recovery in economic activity continues. Sectoral diffusion of economic activity continues to improve. Despite signs of recovery, investment and employment remain weak. While favorable effects of improved competitiveness prevail, weakening global economic outlook tempers external demand. As the contribution of net exports to economic growth declines, economic recovery is expected to be sustained with the help of the ongoing disinflation process and improvement in financial conditions. Nevertheless, developments in credit growth and its composition are closely monitored for their impact on external balance and inflation. Going forward, sustaining a moderate course in current account balance, which has recently recorded significant improvement, is considered as a crucial element of the macroeconomic policy mix.

Weakness in global economic activity and low levels of global inflation strengthen expectations regarding the continuation of expansionary monetary policies in advanced economies. On the other hand, recently elevated uncertainties regarding global economic outlook lead to volatility in the demand for emerging market assets and the risk appetite. Rising protectionism, uncertainty regarding global economic policies, geopolitical developments and the recent outbreak of an epidemic disease are closely monitored for their impact on capital flows, international trade and commodity prices.

Developments in inflation expectations, domestic demand conditions and producer prices have contributed to a mild trend in core inflation indicators. The improvement in macroeconomic indicators, inflation in particular, supports the fall in country risk premium and helps contain cost pressures. The course of inflation is considered to be broadly in line with the year-end inflation projection. Accordingly, considering all factors affecting the inflation outlook, the Committee decided to make a more measured cut in the policy rate. At this point, the current monetary policy stance remains consistent with the projected disinflation path.

The Committee assesses that maintaining a sustained disinflation process is a key factor for achieving lower sovereign risk, lower long-term interest rates, and stronger economic recovery. Keeping the disinflation process in track with the targeted path requires the continuation of a cautious monetary stance. In this respect, monetary stance will be determined by considering the indicators of the underlying inflation trend to ensure the continuation of the disinflation process. The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability and financial stability objectives.

Kaynak: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey / link: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Press+Releases/2020/ANO2020-08
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According to the news of Hürriyet Daily News, international credit ratings agency Moody’s on Nov. 14 upgraded Turkey’s economic growth forecast owing to the country’s growth-friendly fiscal policy.

“Turkey’s recovery is stronger than previously expected, but aggressive stimulus and the U.S. sanctions threat pose risk,” Moody’s said.

The global rating agency revised upward its 2019 and 2020 growth estimates to 0.2 percent and 3 percent, respectively while holding its projection for 2021 at 3 percent.

Moody’s also expected the global growth to remain sluggish as large engines of economic activity slow-down toward a lower long-term trend.

“We expect the G-20 economies, which account for more than 80 percent of the global economy, to collectively grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in 2020, the same rate as in 2019,” it noted, adding that it will pick up slightly in 2021 to 2.8 percent.

It estimated the deceleration in the U.S. and China to continue next year.

“Real GDP growth in the U.S. will likely stabilize around its potential, just below 2 percent. For China, we project a steady deceleration as a result of long-term structural factors,” Moody’s said.

The agency expected the growth of the G-20 emerging market countries to increase 4.3 percent in 2019, collectively registering the weakest growth rate since 2009.

It added that the emerging economies will stabilize or even pick up pace next year and in 2021.

“Growth will accelerate only slightly in 2020, at a rate of 4.6 percent, followed by 4.8 percent in 2021,” it said.

Source: Hürriyet Daily News
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2. Annual growth was driven by domestic demand in the last quarter of 2016. Private spending was up both annually and quarterly thanks to the demand brought forward by automobile tax adjustments, eased macro prudential measures and better financial conditions. Investments, particularly machinery and equipment investments, were relatively weak in this period. With exports accelerating in the last quarter, net external demand provided considerably higher contribution to quarterly growth and a slightly better contribution to annual growth compared to the first nine months of 2016.

3. The first-quarter data for 2017 hint at diminishing recovery in economic activity in the first quarter. Following a robust increase in January, industrial production contracted in February. Rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira at the start of the quarter, uncertainties led by volatile financial markets and the leap in inflation are projected to dampen consumption and investment spending. Although tax incentives stimulate the demand for houses, furniture and home appliances, the recovery in domestic demand fails to spread across all sectors. Indicators for March and April signal for a stronger economic activity and labor market. In brief, the mild recovery in the underlying trend of economic activity continues, which is enhanced by supportive incentives and measures.

4. Despite a partial recovery in domestic demand, net external demand spurs growth with robust increases in exports of goods that spill over into all sectors. The growing demand from the European Union economies, normalizing relations with neighboring countries, the course of the real exchange rate, and Turkey’s market-shifting flexibility abroad continues to stimulate exports. Increases in exports of goods translate into a decelerated deterioration in the current account deficit and improvement in core current account deficit indicators. In addition to the expected partial recovery in tourism, the robust course of exports of goods is expected to contribute positively to the current account.

5. The worsening trend in the labor market that began in May 2016 came to a halt in January 2017. In this period, non-farm employment recorded an uptick particularly with the contribution from the services sector. Meanwhile, leading indicators, such as new job vacancies, the PMI employment index and the expectations for the number of employees in services and construction for March and April suggest a recovery in the employment outlook. Amid the mild rebound in economic activity and the announced employment incentive packages, the partial improvement in unemployment rates is expected to continue.

6. In sum, the recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Domestic demand conditions display a moderate improvement and demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the economic activity is expected to gain further pace in the forthcoming period. However, the course of capital flows in line with uncertainties regarding global economic policies, geopolitical developments, the subsided course of the labor market and the lingering volatility in exchange rates may stand out as factors to limit the pace of growth in 2017.

Source: Central Bank of the Turkish Republic

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World merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, but due to a high level of uncertainty, this is placed within a range of 1.8-3.6%.

In 2016, the weak trade growth of just 1.3% was partly due to cyclical factors as economic activity slowed across the board, but it also reflected deeper structural changes in the relationship between trade and economic output.

Trade growth in 2018 should pick up slightly to between 2.1-4.0%.

Source: WTO

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