Source: Trading Economics
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Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.3% in February. Increases in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors were slightly offset by decreases in construction, wholesale trade, and accommodation and food services. Owing to its preliminary nature, these estimates will be updated based on more complete data with the release of the official GDP data for the month of February on April 28.

Rebounds in several industries drive the gain

Many of the main drivers of growth in January were also the largest contributors to the December decline. In January, the wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sectors all rebounded from declines recorded in the previous month. After remaining relatively flat in the second half of 2022, activity in accommodation and food services was also among the top contributors to growth in January, led by food services and drinking places.

Wholesale activity rebounds in January

Wholesale trade rose 1.8% in January, more than offsetting the declines observed in the previous two months. Overall, seven of nine subsectors posted gains.

Wholesalers of machinery, equipment, and supplies (+2.4%), specifically construction and industrial equipment, drove the increase in January, as imports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts rose, coinciding with strong imports of machinery and parts for the new liquefied natural gas terminal being constructed in British Columbia.

Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction rebounds as oil sands extraction expands

Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction expanded 1.1% in January after the sector stepped back 3.3% in December, due in part to unplanned maintenance. An oil spill in Kansas, United States impacted the supply of Canadian crude oil to the Keystone export pipeline in December.

Oil and gas extraction rose 1.1% in January, led by oil sands extraction (+1.8%) as extraction and exports of crude bitumen increased. Still, unplanned upgrader maintenance constrained production of upgraded synthetic oil, which tempered the overall growth in the oil and gas extraction subsector.

Oil and gas extraction (except oil sands) was essentially unchanged in January, as an increase in natural gas production was offset by a decrease in conventional crude oil production, primarily due to lower offshore production in Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan.

Mining and quarrying (excluding oil and gas extraction) rose 1.0% in January, led by a sharp increase in coal mining (+22.5%) as exports, particularly to China, rose. Declines in non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying (-2.0%) and metal ore mining (-0.5%) partially offset increases in the sector.

Manufacturing activity rises

The manufacturing sector grew 0.5% in January, as growth in durable goods manufacturing more than offset a decline in non-durable goods manufacturing.

Durable goods manufacturing grew 1.2% in January, up for a third consecutive month. Machinery, miscellaneous, fabricated metal, and transportation equipment manufacturing drove the increase in the month. Motor vehicle manufacturing (+20.0%) posted the largest increase within the manufacturing sector. Exports of passenger cars and light trucks rose 18.7%, as easing supply chain and shipping capacity constraints alongside an increase in production days in January paved the road to higher production.

Non-durable goods manufacturing contracted 0.3% in January, its sixth consecutive decline. The chemical manufacturing subsector (-6.3%) led the decrease. Lower activity in the pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industry contributed the most to the decline, with exports falling 2.0% in January. A gain in food product manufacturing (+1.8%) partially offset the overall decline in non-durable goods.

Construction expands

In January, the construction sector (+0.7%) posted its largest gain since March 2022, reflecting increases in all construction subsectors.

Engineering and other construction activities (+1.2%) continued its long-term ascent and was the main driver of growth in the sector. Residential building construction (+0.6%) was another large contributor to the growth, rising for the 2nd time in 10 months as home alterations and improvement drove the gain in January. Non-residential building construction (+0.3%) posted a second consecutive increase as industrial building construction and alterations and improvement expanded. Repair construction (+0.4%) expanded for the first time in four months due to gains in both residential and non-residential repairs.

Transportation and warehousing rebounds following adverse weather in December

Transportation and warehousing rebounded 1.9% in January, more than offsetting a 1.1% decrease in December which, in part, resulted from bad weather conditions late in the month.

Rail transportation (+12.1%) contributed the most to the January increase, its largest growth rate since May 2014, as carloadings of several major commodities including coal, iron ore and fertilizers as well as passenger vehicles increased in January 2023.

A rebound in domestic air travel in January contributed to an increase in air transportation (+0.2%) after December’s decline.

Accommodation and food services expands

The accommodation and food services sector rose 4.0% in January. Increased activity in the food services and drinking places subsector (+4.9%) contributed significantly to the growth in the sector, as each type of activity saw an increase.

After rebounding from the effects of Omicron in the first half of 2022, activity in the food services and drinking places subsector remained relatively flat in the second half of the year. The January increase (+4.9%) followed a decline in November and a slight gain in December. This was the first January since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic with no COVID-19 restrictions impacting the subsector.

Arts, entertainment and recreation records a gain in January

Arts, entertainment and recreation increased 2.1% in January, with the increase solely coming from performing arts, spectator sports, and heritage institutions (+6.8%).

In January, there were more home games hosted by Canadian NHL teams than usual, specifically the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montréal Canadiens. This, coupled with the World Junior hockey tournament occurring in both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, drove the increase.

Public sector continues to grow

The public sector (educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration combined) expanded 0.3% in January, up for the 12th consecutive month as all components increased

Source: Statistics Canada
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Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—increased 0.5% in January.

In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.5% in January.

As of the January 2023 reference period, Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) figures are now based on the 2022 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS 2022) classification structure. This new classification structure has, in effect, broadened the scope of the MRTS. While the seasonal variation for many subsectors and store types is relatively unchanged, new sales level estimates reflect the inclusion of this new wider scope of retailers.

Given the continually evolving economic situation, Statistics Canada is providing an advance estimate of retail sales, which suggests that sales decreased 0.6% in February. Owing to its early nature, this figure will be revised. This unofficial estimate was calculated based on responses received from 51.0% of companies surveyed. The average final response rate for the survey over the previous 12 months has been 89.9%.

Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers drive retail sales

Sales were up 3.0% at motor vehicle and parts dealers in January, a sixth consecutive monthly increase. The gain was led by higher sales at new car dealers (+3.0%), which posted its second largest increase since May 2022. Also contributing to the gain in January 2023 were higher sales at other motor vehicle dealers (+8.9%) and used car dealers (+0.7%).

Following the decline in December—the largest since July 2022—sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors increased 2.9% in January 2023. In volume terms, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors decreased 0.6%. Gasoline prices rose 4.7% on an unadjusted basis in January, largely related to refinery closures in the southwestern United States following winter storm Elliott.

Core retail sales rise on strength from food and beverage retailers

Core retail sales rose 0.5% in January, with food and beverage retailers leading the increase. Sales were up in three of four store types, namely at beer, wine and liquor retailers (+2.3%), convenience retailers and vending machine operators (+6.0%) and specialty food retailers (+3.3%). The Consumer Price Index noted prices for food purchased from stores were up 10.4% on a year-over-year basis in January.

Also contributing to the increase in core retail sales in January were higher sales at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewellery, luggage and leather goods retailers (+1.8%). The increase was led by higher sales at clothing and clothing accessories retailers (+2.2%), the latter recording the largest increase since February 2022.

Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers (-1.2%) posted the largest decline to core retail sales in January 2023. Sales have declined in this subsector for five of the seven months preceding January.

Sales up in all provinces

Retail sales increased in all provinces in January. The largest provincial increase was observed in Alberta (+2.9%), led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

In Ontario, retail sales increased 0.7% in January and were led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers as well as food and beverage retailers.

In January, retail sales were up 1.8% in British Columbia and were also led by motor vehicle and parts dealers. In the Vancouver census metropolitan area, sales were up 3.4%.

Retail e-commerce sales in Canada

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail e-commerce sales were down 0.1% to $3.3 billion in January, accounting for 5.0% of total retail trade compared with 5.1% in December.

Source: Statistics Canada
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According to economists and other experts, as demand rises and well-established supply networks reassert themselves in a post-pandemic world, businesses are looking past political tensions between the two nations.

James Brander, an economics professor at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia, asserted that businesses would not put politics above profits in the absence of laws or regulations mandating it, such as the ones presently prohibiting trade with Russia.

Yes, there are conflicts, of course. However, unless there is a clear strategy, political tensions don’t have a significant impact on economic or trade flows, or economic activity in general, according to Brander.

According to Statistics Canada, Canada imported goods from China worth a high $100,027,968,000 last year, up 16% from $86 billion in 2021.

Consumer goods accounted for $31 billion of all imports in 2022, followed by electronic and electrical apparatus ($28 billion).

According to the data, Canadian exports to China hit a record high of $27.9 billion, recovering from a slump caused by the arrest of Chinese Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018 and China’s detention of Canadians Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig.
Last year, China lifted a three-year ban on Canadian canola that had been applied following Meng’s arrest. Meng has since returned to China.

However, tensions between Ottawa and Beijing remain high amid accusations of Chinese meddling in Canadian elections and government confirmation of Chinese surveillance operations.

Source: Global News
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The federal agency’s preliminary estimate for January suggests Canadian consumers continued spending in the new year, with early figures indicating sales increased 0.7 per cent last month.

Sales grew in seven of 11 subsectors in December, representing 75.1 per cent of retail trade.

Statistics Canada says higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, up 3.8 per cent, and general merchandise stores, up 1.7 per cent, led the increase.

Overall core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, were up 0.4 per cent in December.

In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.3 per cent in December

Source: BNNBlomberg
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In January, prices rose 4.9% on a year-over-year basis excluding food and energy and 5.4% excluding mortgage interest cost. In both cases, year-over-year price growth slowed compared with December.

The headline CPI grew at a slower pace year over year in January (+5.9%) compared with December (+6.3%) due to a base-year effect. This is because the monthly increase in January 2023 (+0.5%) was smaller than the monthly increase in January 2022 (+0.9%). In January 2022, mounting tensions amid the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine coupled with supply chain disruptions and higher prices for housing put upward pressure on prices.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5% in January 2023 following a 0.6% decline in December. Higher gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase, followed by a rise in mortgage interest cost and meat prices. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3%.

Consumers pay more at the pump in January compared with December

Gasoline prices contributed the most to the month-over-month increase in the all-items CPI, rising 4.7% in January. The price increase was related to refinery closures in the southwestern United States following winter storm Elliot.

On a year-over-year basis, prices for gasoline rose 2.9% in January, decelerating slightly from a 3.0% increase in December.

Consumers pay less for cellular services

Cellular service prices fell 7.9% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.5% increase in December. Some Boxing Day sales remained available into January, leading to a decline when compared with the same month a year earlier.

Year-over-year passenger vehicle prices increase at a slower rate

Year over year, consumers paid 6.2% more for passenger vehicles in January following a 7.2% increase in December. This slowdown in price growth is partly attributable to a base-year effect, caused by a 0.9% month-over-month increase in January 2022, when prices were impacted by ongoing supply chain constraints. In comparison, vehicle prices declined 0.1% month over month in January 2023. Lower availability of new model-year vehicles in January 2023 compared with January 2022 may also be contributing to the year-over-year deceleration.

Shelter prices decelerate despite continued upward pressure from mortgage interest cost

On a year-over-year basis, shelter prices increased at a slower rate, rising 6.6% in January after a 7.0% increase in December. Growth in other owned accommodation expenses (+1.1%) and homeowners’ replacement cost (+4.3%) continued to decelerate amid the ongoing cooling of the housing market.

At the same time, the mortgage interest cost index continued to rise at a faster year-over-year pace amid the higher interest rate environment, rising 21.2% in January, the largest increase since September 1982, following an 18.0% increase in December.

Food prices rise at a faster pace year over year

Food prices, which include both groceries and food from restaurants, rose at a slightly faster pace year over year in January (+10.4%) than in December (+10.1%).

Grocery price acceleration in January was driven in part by year-over-year growth in meat prices (+7.3%), resulting from the largest month-over-month increase since June 2004. Fresh or frozen chicken prices were a notable contributor to the gain, rising 9.0% in January compared with December, the largest monthly increase since September 1986. Among other factors, chicken prices rose amid stronger seasonal demand as well as ongoing supply constraints, elevated input costs and issues related to avian influenza. Additional acceleration was seen in year-over-year price increases for bakery products (+15.5%), dairy products (+12.4%) and fresh vegetables (+14.7%).

Food purchased from restaurants also rose at a faster pace, rising 8.2% in January following a 7.7% increase in December. The gain was the result of higher prices for fast food and takeout.

Source: Statistics Canada
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• Equal treatment of citizens of both parties in terms of rights and obligations,
• Aggregation of periods of insurance completed in the territory of the other contracting party for the determination of entitlement to a benefit,
• In case of an illness, the insured person and his/her family members can avail themselves of the right to healthcare benefits while staying in the territory of the other contracting party,
• Family members can avail themselves of the family benefits (child benefits and increments) while residing in the territory of the other contracting party,
• Entitlement to a retirement pension for an insured person, who attains the required age after returning to the other contracting party,
• Continuing to receive the pension, acquired regarding the employments in one of the contracting parties, after transferring of the residence to the other contracting party,
• In case of death of the insured person, family members residing in the territory of the other contracting party can be entitled to a widow’s or orphan’s pension and a lump sum payment as the survivors of the deceased.

Accordingly, those who will avail themselves of the provisions of the agreement are considered equal in the legislations of the contracting parties to the citizens of that country in terms of rights and interests through a common and key provision of the agreements. Thus our citizens employed in the contracted countries and their dependents can benefit from their social security rights under the same conditions as the nationals of that country.

As a result of the social security agreements, our citizens in Turkey have the opportunity to avail themselves of their social security rights, arising from the legislation of the other country and acquired with respect to long and short term insurance branches. In addition to the insured person himself/herself, his/her family members living with him in the country of employment, the family members living in Turkey can benefit from this right.

Turkey has signed Social Security Agreements with 28 countries. These agreements are enumerated in the table below.

Legal Notice: The information in this article is intended for information purposes only. It is not intended for professional information purposes specific to a person or an institution. Every institution has different requirements because of its own circumstances even though they bear a resemblance to each other. Consequently, it is your interest to consult on an expert before taking a decision based on information stated in this article and putting into practice. Neither MuhasebeNews nor related person or institutions are not responsible for any damages or losses that might occur in consequence of the use of the information in this article by private or formal, real or legal person and institutions.

The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is meant to replace the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), which Trump has viewed as a “disaster”.

Trump appeared with Trudeau and outgoing Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires for the formal signing ceremony.

The new agreement requires that 40% of cars eventually be made in countries that pay autoworkers at least $16 an hour – that is, the US and Canada and not Mexico – to qualify for duty-free treatment under the trade pact.

It also requires Mexico to pursue reforms of labor law to encourage independent unions.

Each country’s legislature must also approve the agreement.

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According to the data of the Turkish Exporters’ Assembly, Turkey’s value of total exports in the last 12 months rose by 4% to stand at almost 145.7 billion dollars compared to the previous 12 months.

Other prominent export sectors that climbed in the month was the automotive sector with a 253 million dollars, followed by the mining and jewelry sectors’ increases of 112 million dollars and 100 million dollars respectively, according to Turkish Exporters’ Assembly data.

Additionally, Turkey’s eminent trading partner increased 3.2% in the month; they had increased by 2.1 billion dollars in the first four months of the year when compared to same period last year.

Turkey’s exports to its second-biggest trading partner, North America, surged by 28.7% in the month compared to April 2016.

In line with the data taken from Turkish Exporters’ Assembly, the most remarkable increases were seen in Turkey’s exports to Malta by 351%, the UAE by 99% and Canada by 50%.

Source: Turkish Exporters’ Assembly

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The study projects that the world economy will double in size by 2042, growing at an annual average rate of around 2.6% between 2016 and 2050. This growth is expected to be driven largely by emerging markets and developing countries, with the E7 economies of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey growing at an annual average rate of almost 3.5% over the next 34 years, compared to just 1.6% for the advanced G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. According to the study, Turkey has the potential to grow at an annual average rate of around 3% over the next 34 years – the fastest of the European countries in the study – compared to 1.6% on average for the G7 countries.

Therefore, the country is projected to become the world’s 12th largest economy as of 2030 in PPP terms and will reach 11th by 2050 if it manages to implement significant structural reforms. In this case, Turkey could also maintain its second position in 2050 within the E7 countries in terms of GDP per capita in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms.

Source: Ministry of Economy

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